Disclaimer: Unless otherwise stated, any opinions expressed below belong solely to the author.
The headlines will tell you that Singapore’s property market is finally cooling down. In early 2026, the HDB resale price index dipped by 0.1%, signalling a long-awaited breather for exhausted homebuyers.
But don’t pop the champagne just yet.
At the exact same time, million-dollar public housing transactions surged by over 17% quarter-on-quarter. In prime, mature estates, seven-figure price tags are no longer surprising—they are becoming the norm.
But it isn’t inflation, and it isn’t a failure of the public housing system. It is the system doing exactly what it was designed to do.
In fact, the slowdown in price appreciation may not be something to be happy about at all.
More than a home
Singaporeans complaining about rising prices are usually found among buyers, not sellers. And only those who are forced to purchase their homes in the resale market, rather than directly from the government, as BTOs come with significant discounts.
In reality, as long as you already own an apartment, then relative price movements don’t affect you too much, as the tide lifts all boats. You buy for more but you also sell for more.
However, from the very beginning of the HDB system, the government conceived it not only as a way to provide affordable homes to all Singaporeans but as an appreciating asset that adds to your pension when you retire.
The logic is very simple: you usually start a family in a larger apartment, fit for two adults with children, who then go on to buy their own when they grow up, making downsizing an attractive option for ageing parents.
As long as the apartment increases in value in line with or above general inflation, the difference you pocket from buying a smaller, cheaper flat can grow and supplement your retirement income—either directly or through a CPF top-up, which can also earn you an additional government grant.
Once we accept that prices should keep going up, then it’s only inevitable that they must reach the million-dollar mark at one point.
In fact, some are approaching S$2 million already, like the recent record-setter in Bukit Merah, sold for S$1.728 million with 92 years left on its lease. Expect to see more of those each year.
Apartments outpaced incomes by less than you think
Between 2015 and 2025, the Resale Price Index increased by about 50.7%. At the same time, the median household market income has gone up by 42.7%, against cumulative inflation of around 19 %.
So, yes, Singaporeans are paying relatively more for housing than a decade ago, but not by much, just 8%
Now, consider the opposite scenario: what if home prices had stayed level in the same conditions?
It would certainly be a boon for buyers of second-hand HDBs, but the elderly could lose close to 1/5th of their nest egg, eaten away by inflation. It wouldn’t be a reason to celebrate. On the contrary, it would suggest that the system has failed those it was supposed to help when they really needed it.
After all, new entrants still enjoy BTO benefits and make a substantial profit between the launch price and MOP. The elderly may, at most, receive a CPF grant of up to S$40,000, which wouldn’t cover their losses.
So, the ideal range within which resale HDB prices should fluctuate is above inflation but below salaries. It is where all Singaporeans benefit. Those still at work can afford bigger, better homes, while those in retirement can extract more value from theirs.
For the past 10 years, that range would fall between 20 and 42%—a bit below the 50.7% recorded. But even then, the number of million-dollar apartments reaching the market would still be high, and grow each year.
It’s inevitable.
And there’s no reason to complain, because one day, this relentless march upwards is going to benefit you too.
- Read other articles we’ve written on Singapore’s current affairs here.
Featured Image Credit: bill.roque/ depositphotos
